Roy Moore exit polls coming in

While you're watching the returns in Alabama come in tonight, recall that Donald Trump won the state in November by 28 points. Polls in the race between Roy Moore, a flagrant bigot who says he only dated teenagers with the permission of their moms (no, he really said that), and Doug Jones, a Democrat and former prosecutor, have been all over the place. But if you've been a regular reader of this email, you know that in the special elections since last November, Democratic turnout has surged and Republican voters have stayed home. That pattern held in Virginia, which led to the stunning upsets across the state. The country is not monolithic, but if the pattern holds again tonight, Doug Jones could pull it off. Of course, the Alabama GOP is counting the votes and overseeing the election, so Jones needs to win by a comfortable margin to actually win. And reversing a 28-point deficit is a huge task, far from certain. We have a reporter, Jonathan Krohn, who's covering the fish fries and barbecues they have at the polls on election day in the rural black parts of Alabama. He reports back that turnout is way up and from his own observation, looks to be exceeding even the general election in November. That enthusiasm has also translated to huge amounts of absentee ballots pouring in. And exit polls have been quite positive for Democrats, showing a deadlocked race. Exit polls I obtained, which are subject to revision and should be taken with large doses of salt, show a 49-49 tie, with two percent writing in somebody else. It could be a long night. If Jones wins, it means Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan will have to really hustle to get their tax bill done before they lose that vote. Not that Moore is a guaranteed yes on everything McConnell wants, given that the two are now enemies. 2. Five progressive groups recently endorsed a challenger to a sitting Democrat in Illinois. A pro-choice, progressive woman, Marie Newman, is running against an anti-choice and broadly conservative Democratic man, Rep. Dan Lipinski, yet two powerful groups -- EMILY's List and Planned Parenthood -- did not join in the group endorsement. Here's my story with Henriette Chacar. You're getting this email because you either signed up for it or you took a survey and opted in to this newsletter -- or, probably, you declined to opt out. Either way, I hope you're enjoying it. I'm the Washington bureau chief at The Intercept, and I send this several times a week. If you see an ad here, it's there because sending mass emails turns out to be really expensive. I'm not making any money off of it; it goes to the email service provider and just defrays the cost a bit. If you want to contribute directly to help keep the thing running, you can do so here, though be warned a donation comes with no tote bags or extra premium content or anything. Or you can buy a copy of Out of the Ooze: The Story of Dr. Tom Price, the first book put out by Strong Arm Press, a small progressive publishing house I cofounded. If somebody forwarded you this note, you can sign up to start getting your own copy here. Sent via ActionNetwork.org. To update your email address, change your name or address, or to stop receiving emails from Bad News, please click here.